Maybe you have heard the expression “gambler’s fallacy” before, maybe you haven’t. But knowing what it means can be a great help when playing poker for example. Here is an explanation of the term.
What is the probability of getting a black in the next turn if I flip a coin 10 times? A lot of people claim the probability is 10 heads and 0 tails. But if I tell you the truth, it is less than 10. If you flip 100 hands it is still 50-50 (excluding the flip) whether the next coin will be heads or tails.
The same goes for flipping a coin, the probability of getting a black in the next flip is less than 50%, less than 99.9% is even more less, and less than 99.2% is exact. The ending odds are 50-50 (excluding the tails number) or even more than that. So knowing the probability is a good thing when you play.
Knowing the probability of becoming a better pokerbo player is very important when you sit to play at a table and you want to win, so that means you have to analyze your own play and try to increase the probability of winning. This can be done in many ways, but the most important one is to figure out what your competitors are doing and then beat them at their own game.
Most of us know that poker is about the long run. If you could spend the long run playing at a bunch of tables and each time improve your game, you would be a much better poker player than if you just sat on your fat wallet. The fact that you have not fat if you spend it means you must earn it (don’t worry, I didn’t mean to make you rich, but you’ll sure have to work for it in most cases). So every time you sit down to play a new game your decision to play will mean more than not playing a certain hand. You will start playing more selection cards, less junk cards, you will hit the flop more often, and your game as a whole will improve. But even if you win as many hands as you lose, you will end up losing far less than making a huge profit off the tables.
This is where the gambler’s fallacy comes into play. The more cards you see that allow you to think you have a better hand than you really do, the more you are tempted to continue in the game. That means as the cards that hurt your hand get nearer, your will believe even more strongly that you have the winning hand and you will bet even more aggressively, even if you have nothing. The fact that you even see those cards that let you believe you have a strong hand indicates something very important, maybe you are under anrage bet, betting too much. Maybe you even have yourself confused.
Even the most successful poker players have to deal with this basic challenge of looking for patterns and noises that suggest he or she has a very strong hand when they actually do not. The odds game is based on the fact that people have the same chances of getting certain cards as you do. So when you think you have a good card, and you actually do, pause the game and analyze the play that your opponent made. Did they play an ultra aggressive game? Did they play a passive game? Did they bluff? Did they come out betting strong pre-flop? Or did they check-call? Whatever style of play they use, analyze their competition to understand if they are strong or weak, aggressive or passive.
Once you understand your opponent’s Assuming they are sitting on a strong hand, you must play around them. You can’t wait for a good hand, you must play when your hand is strong. That means if you have a good high hand, you must play more aggressively than if you are holding a low high card.